PensionMath
Pension MathDecember 1, 20256 min read

IRS 417(e) Segment Rates: 2020 to 2026 and What They Did to Pension Lump Sums

From historic lows in 2020 to elevated rates in 2026, segment rate swings have shifted pension lump sum values by hundreds of thousands of dollars. Here is the full history.

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Reviewed for accuracy against current IRS rules and segment rates

If you are trying to understand why your pension lump sum changed, or why your employer chose this particular moment to offer a buyout, segment rate history is the answer. The three IRS 417(e) segment rates move with the corporate bond market, and their swings over the past six years have produced some of the most dramatic shifts in pension lump sum values since the program was established.

The 2020 to 2021 historic low

The Federal Reserve cut rates to near zero in March 2020. Corporate bond yields followed. By November 2020, the segment rates applicable to 2021 plan years were 0.45%, 1.47%, and 2.31% for segments 1, 2, and 3 respectively. These were the lowest rates in the history of the IRS 417(e) program.

For pension holders, this was a historic window. A $3,000/month pension for a 65-year-old with a 20-year expected retirement was worth approximately $640,000 as a lump sum. Employers who offered buyout windows in 2021 were transferring maximum value to retirees. Some intentionally timed windows to use the rate environment; others used it as an opportunity to shed pension liabilities at their highest possible cost.

The 2022 rate spike

The Fed began hiking rates aggressively in March 2022. By November 2022, the segment rates applicable to 2023 plan years were 4.88%, 5.14%, and 5.00%. That same $3,000/month pension was now worth approximately $450,000. In two years, the lump sum equivalent fell by roughly $190,000. Same pension. Same person. Only the discount rate changed.

This is the single most important thing to understand about pension lump sum math: the present value is a function of interest rates, not just your benefit level. A rising rate environment mechanically shrinks lump sums even when pensions are fully funded and paying normally.

2023 to 2026 stabilization

Rates stayed elevated through 2023 and 2024 as the Fed maintained its tightening position. The November 2025 rates applicable to 2026 plan years came in at 5.03%, 5.35%, and 5.57%. Slightly higher than 2023, reflecting continued corporate bond market conditions and no dramatic Fed reversal.

There was no return to near-zero rates. The extraordinary lump sum values of 2020 to 2021 are unlikely to recur without another financial crisis on the scale of 2008 or 2020.

What this means if you are waiting

If you have been waiting for rates to fall before electing a lump sum, consider whether that expectation is realistic. Rates would need to fall several hundred basis points across all three segments to approach 2021 lump sum levels. That is a severe recession scenario, not a base case. Meanwhile, the annuity continues to provide its guaranteed monthly income regardless of rate movements.

Finding historical rates

The IRS publishes segment rates monthly in Revenue Rulings, archived at IRS.gov. Your plan's Summary Plan Description specifies whether your plan uses the November, October, or August lookback month. Use the calculator on this site with the specific rates from your plan documents for the most accurate present value. The current 2026 rates are pre-populated, and you can enter any historical rate set to see what your pension would have been worth at a different point in time.

The math in this article is for educational purposes. Tax laws, benefit formulas, and IRS rules change. Before making pension or retirement decisions involving five- or six-figure amounts, consult a fee-only fiduciary financial advisor who can model your specific situation.

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Frequently asked questions

Why did my pension lump sum drop from 2021 to 2023?

Segment rates nearly tripled as the Fed raised interest rates aggressively starting in 2022. Higher segment rates discount your future payments more heavily, producing a smaller present value. The underlying pension monthly amount did not change.

Will rates go back to 2020 levels?

Unlikely without a major financial crisis requiring near-zero Fed policy. Current rates reflect a more normalized interest rate environment. The 2020-2021 lows were extraordinary and historically unprecedented.

Which month determines my plan's segment rates?

Your Summary Plan Description specifies the lookback month. November is most common, but August and October are also used. The lookback month determines which published rate set applies to lump sums in a given plan year.

How much did lump sums drop from 2021 to 2026?

A $3,000/month pension for a 65-year-old with a 20-year life expectancy dropped from roughly $640,000 in 2021 to approximately $450,000 in 2026, a reduction of about $190,000 with no change to the underlying pension.

Can I choose when to take my lump sum to get better rates?

Only if your plan offers flexible election windows. Most plans tie lump sum calculations to the specific plan year segment rates, which are determined by the lookback month in your SPD. You cannot choose which rate set applies.

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